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HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW ON ITS WAY TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 75.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina
Beach to Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast
from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watches and
Warnings for Cuba.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 75.7 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow,
and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by
tomorrow night.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it
moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).  Ragged Island in the Bahamas recently reported sustained
winds of 58 mph (93 km/h), and a minimum pressure of 985 mb (29.09
inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida and Georgia by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the
north coast of central and eastern Cuba through this evening.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Western Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals of
40 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti and central and eastern Cuba.

Rainfall will diminish across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic
this evening.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to
Savannah River.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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