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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTH TO BOCA RATON HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BOCA RATON...AS WELL AS
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE
* JUPITER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SURF CITY
* BOCA RATON TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO ANCLOTE RIVER

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  80.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  80.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  79.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.6N  80.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.6N  79.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.1N  77.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N  76.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N  80.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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