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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH...FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO
BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  76.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  76.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  76.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.6N  77.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N  79.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.2N  80.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.1N  81.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 32.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  76.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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