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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  75.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  75.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  75.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N  76.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.6N  78.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.2N  79.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N  80.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.6N  76.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N  75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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