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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH...FLORIDA TO
THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI
* SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  74.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  74.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  74.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N  74.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N  77.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.5N  79.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 34.0N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  74.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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