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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  74.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  74.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  74.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.9N  74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE  80SE  70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N  75.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE  70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N  74.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N  75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 29.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  74.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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