ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...AND
LAS TUNAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI
FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING
THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  74.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  60SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  74.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  73.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.6N  74.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE  80SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N  74.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N  74.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.8N  74.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N  74.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N  76.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  74.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN