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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM EAST OF LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM EAST OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY PROVINCE TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  73.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  73.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  73.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N  73.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE  80SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.8N  74.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 105SE  70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.1N  74.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N  75.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  73.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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