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HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND
ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MATTHEW.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  71.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT.......170NE  70SE  50SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  71.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  71.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N  72.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE  80SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.5N  73.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N  74.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  70SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N  75.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  70SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.2N  76.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  71.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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