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HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning,
Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance.  The
eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more
distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a
bit more symmetric.  Consistent with these changes, observations
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some
strengthening has taken place.  The advisory intensity is set
to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed
surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew
should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone
moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in
intensity.  However, interactions with land should cause some
weakening during the next couple of days.  Aside from that, some
fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model
consensus.

Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours,
but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is
northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt.  The track forecast
reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package.
Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days.
Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north
of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left.  In
general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with
the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an
outlier.  The official track forecast is along essentially the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.
This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible
hurricane impacts there.  It is also too soon to know whether, or
how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east
coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 14.6N  74.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 15.4N  74.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 16.7N  74.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.3N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.1N  74.5W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1800Z 23.6N  75.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 26.8N  76.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 30.0N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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