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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016

As anticipated, the southwesterly shear has been gradually
increasing, and the center of Lisa is located on the western edge
of an area of very deep convection convection. Based on the average
of Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this
advisory. Given that the shear is forecast to increase further, and
the fact that Lisa is heading for cooler waters, the NHC forecast
calls for weakening. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low
in about 3 days, but this process could even occur much sooner. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.

The steering pattern has not changed, and Lisa is moving toward the
northwest or 310 degrees around the western side of a weak
subtropical ridge. This general track should continue for the next
2 to 3 days until a large mid-latitude trough amplifies and force
Lisa or its remnants to recurve. The NHC track forecast is an update
of the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 19.9N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 20.9N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 22.3N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 23.6N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 25.0N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 31.5N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 35.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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