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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  50.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  30SE  30SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  50.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  49.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N  52.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N  54.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N  57.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE  50SE   0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.9N  59.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.7N  63.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  70SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.3N  60.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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