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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  49.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  30SE  30SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  49.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N  51.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N  53.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N  56.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N  58.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.9N  62.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  70SE  60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N  49.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PETERSEN/CHENARD


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