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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  45.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  45.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  44.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N  47.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N  49.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N  52.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N  54.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N  59.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.4N  64.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N  45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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