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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  37.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  37.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  36.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N  38.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N  41.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N  44.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N  46.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N  61.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N  37.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 
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