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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Convection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of
Julia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in
thin bands closer to the center.  This is just enough to keep the
cyclone a tropical depression for this advisory.  In the short term,
the vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and
the cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less.  The
dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but
it is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take
advantage of the more favorable environment.  Thus, the intensity
forecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours.

The depression is currently nearly stationary.  A low- to mid-level
ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States.  The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is
similar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.2N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 30.4N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 31.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 32.2N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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