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TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
1500 UTC MON SEP 12 2016
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 50.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 50.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 50.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.4N 52.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 53.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.7N 54.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 53.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 42.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 50.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
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FORECASTER PASCH
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