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HURRICANE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

...HERMINE MADE LANDFALL NEAR SAINT MARKS FLORIDA WITH 80 MPH
WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM ENE OF SAINT MARKS FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...40 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to Sandy Hook
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
* Southern Delaware Bay

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hermine was located
inland near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 84.0 West. Hermine
is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
general motion toward the northeast is expected with an increase in
forward speed through today.  On the forecast track, the center of
Hermine should move farther inland across the eastern Florida
Panhandle into southeastern Georgia later today. The center of
Hermine should then move near or over eastern South Carolina tonight
and near or over eastern North Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening should begin while Hermine moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just before landfall was 982 mb
(29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should continue to spread along the
coast in the hurricane warning area at this time.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along
the Atlantic coast later today, and spread northward through the
weekend.  Wind in the tropical storm warning area along the Gulf
coast of Florida should gradually diminish today.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be
flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is
a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24
hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat
Key.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow any
instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown...6 to 9 feet
Yankeetown to Aripeka...4 to 7 feet
Aripeka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet
Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southeastern United States
from northwest Florida through southern and eastern Georgia into
South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening
floods and flash floods. Heavy rain could reach the coastal
Mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to New Jersey beginning early
Saturday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southern Georgia.  The tornado risk will spread
across the eastern Carolinas today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Stewart

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