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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HERMINE HEADING FOR THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 86.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward for the
Atlantic coast to Surf City North Carolina.  A  Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued north of Surf City to Oregon Inlet North Carolina,
including Pamlico Sound.  The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm
Warning have been discontinued west of the Walton/Bay County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Marineland to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and
northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine
will be near the Florida coast in the hurricane warning area tonight
or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.   Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is
expected to be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum
central pressure of 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning tonight.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along
the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through Friday
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along
the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Keaton Beach...5 to 8 feet
Keaton Beach to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida
and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches.  On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected
to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South
Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday.  These rains
may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon into Friday
morning over north Florida and southeast Georgia.  The tornado risk
will continue across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into
Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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