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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 87.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida
through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A slow drift toward the north-northwest or north is expected tonight
and early Wednesday morning. A turn toward the north-northeast is
forecast to begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening. On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the
northwest Florida coast in the watch area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday,
and be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the
Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch
area by Thursday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a
possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours
along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located
within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow
any instructions from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday,
with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches.  These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Storm
total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of
the Florida peninsula through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches possible.  This rainfall may cause flooding and flash
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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