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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SANDY HOOK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND EASTWARD
* DELAWARE BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO WEST OF WATCH HILL

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UNITED STATES NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  80.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  80.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  81.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N  77.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  90SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.1N  75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.1N  73.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE   0SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 190SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.8N  72.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 160SE 150SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.4N  72.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 39.7N  71.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 40.5N  69.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N  80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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