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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK
NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
FROM COBB ISLAND EASTWARD.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA AND FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST SOUTH OF NASSAU SOUND
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NASSAU SOUND TO SOUTH OF FENWICK ISLAND
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND TO WEST OF WATCH HILL
* SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UNITED STATES NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  82.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE 210SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  82.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  82.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.5N  79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.4N  76.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 190SE  90SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.7N  73.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE   0SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.5N  72.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.1N  72.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 38.8N  71.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 39.3N  71.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  82.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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