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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
0900 UTC THU SEP 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST
COAST FROM MARINELAND FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO DESTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO DESTIN
* MARINELAND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ELSEWHERE IN NORTH
CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  86.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  86.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  87.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.8N  85.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.0N  84.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.0N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N  73.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 38.0N  72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N  86.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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