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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
700 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

...EARL HUGGING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 93.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 93.5 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn
toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving
near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and
tonight. Earl will then move into southeastern mainland Mexico
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with
weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the
warning area today and tonight.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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