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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
100 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

...CENTER OF EARL APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 92.3W
ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM SW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico.

Interests elsewhere along the southern Bay of Campeche should
monitor the progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located by the Mexican radar at Sabacuy near latitude 18.3 North,
longitude 92.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near
10 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is
expected for the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the center
of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay
of Campeche today and tonight, then moving into the southeastern
mainland of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening expected on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the
warning area today.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Guatemala and the Mexican states
of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz into Saturday
morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in
northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of
Chiapas.  These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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