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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
100 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...EARL BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 90.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF FLORES GUATEMALA
ABOUT 140 MI...255 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located inland over northern Guatemala near latitude 17.3 North,
longitude 90.2 West.  Earl is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Earl will continue to
move across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves over high terrain, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions over a small area near the center
should continue to spread westward over northern Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central
part of the Mexican state of Chiapas.  These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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