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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
100 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located
by the radar in Belize City near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 88.3
West.  Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h), and a
westward or slightly north of westward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast
track, the center of Earl will move across central or northern
Belize during the next several hours, and move over the southern
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala later on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Earl will begin to weaken as it moves farther inland over
Belize.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the latest Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 979 mb (28.91
inches). A storm chaser in Belize City reported a pressure of 982
mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore of the coast of
Belize near and north of Belize City and should spread inland
during the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are
spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in the
warned area.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night.  Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz
between Thursday night and Saturday morning.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize.  These rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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