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TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...
MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  83.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  30SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  83.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  82.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N  84.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N  87.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N  89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.4N  91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N  95.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  83.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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