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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Earl has continued to spin down as it moves farther inland over
Guatemala.  The coverage of cold convective tops has decreased and
is limited to an area southeast of the center and a rain band about
140 n mi northeast of the center.  Assuming a steady weakening, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.  Earl is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression tonight and then could become a
remnant low at any time in the next couple of days if the deep
convection dissipates.  The low-level circulation of Earl or its
remnants should dissipate by 72 hours over the high terrain of
central Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is now a bit north of due west, 280/09.
The weakening tropical cyclone should continue moving westward to
west-northwestward for the next couple of days to the south of a
mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and southern United
States.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one,
and shows the center moving near the coast of the extreme southern
Bay of Campeche in about 24 hours before moving back inland.  This
track is close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Earl is expected to produce very heavy rains over a large portion of
Central America and southeastern Mexico.  In addition, global models
continue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern
Mexico during the next few days.  This weather pattern will likely
lead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18
inches possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 17.6N  90.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  05/0600Z 17.8N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/1800Z 18.3N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  06/0600Z 18.6N  95.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  06/1800Z 19.0N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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