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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and
found that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the
cloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane.
An Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central
pressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far
no hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60
kt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening
today is the interaction of the circulation with Central America,
but nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity
before landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening
is anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the
center of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Earl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The
cyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a
strong and persistent high pressure system over the United States.
This pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward
track over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that
the cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the
southern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the
chances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one and follows the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 16.5N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.8N  86.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 17.5N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0000Z 18.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1200Z 19.0N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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