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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

Microwave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a
mid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the
circulation center has reformed to the south of the previous
forecast track underneath the eye feature.  Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial
intensity.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate Earl.

The latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion
caused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a
westward motion of 280/12.  A large subtropical ridge centered over
the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving
near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over
Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24
hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of
Campeche thereafter.  The new forecast track is similar to, but
south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position,
and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.

Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind
shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until
landfall.  This combination should allow continued strengthening,
and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly
from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models.
Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over
southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less
time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new
intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous
forecast.

A hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands
of Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer
to the islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 16.1N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 16.5N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 17.0N  87.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 17.5N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0600Z 18.1N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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