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TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed
circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this
basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated.  This
is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this
morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection
is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not
well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of
the global models show that the upper-level environment should
become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for
some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.

Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within
very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern
United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone
on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the
next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move
over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone
should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering
currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1600Z 16.3N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 16.3N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 17.0N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.0N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z 19.2N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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