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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

The depression has changed little in overall organization since
the previous advisory.  Deep convection that developed near the
center during the late afternoon has waned this evening, while
showers and thunderstorms over the far northern portion of the
circulation continue to exhibit some loose banding structure. Recent
buoy data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB still
support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  Data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate
the depression overnight should provide a better assessment
of the cyclone's intensity.

The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The cyclone should move inland over Mexico within the next 12 to
24 hours while it continues to move westward to the south of a
large mid- to upper-level high that is located over the
south-central United States.  The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near a blend
of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.

Moderate southwesterly shear and the sprawling structure of the
depression should prohibit significant strengthening before it
reaches the coast of Mexico.  However, some slight strengthening
is possible, and the system is still forecast to become a tropical
storm overnight or early Monday.  Rapid weakening is expected once
the center moves over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico, and
the system is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
this system.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 20.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 20.2N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 20.4N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1200Z 20.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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