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TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite
imagery this afternoon.  The center remains well removed from the
showers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has
found the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center.
The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been
63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt.  Since the plane did not
fully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at
45 kt.  The global models continue to significantly deepen the
cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the
interaction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is
currently moving southeastward over the Midwest.  The intensity
forecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24
to 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone
after day 2.

Colin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves
along the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight
and Tuesday.  A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as
the cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough.  The
track guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but
has shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from
the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall.  Heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting
much of Florida and portions of the southeast United States.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.  In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 28.8N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 31.7N  81.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1800Z 35.2N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/0600Z 39.4N  66.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/1800Z 43.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1800Z 48.5N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1800Z 53.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 56.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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