ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today, thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation. The maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Given the current lack of deep convection, this intensity estimate may be generous. Since the system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48 hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie is moving along the northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue for the next couple of days. The track model guidance is in general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some acceleration over the next 48 hours. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.9N 69.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.7N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 35.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 34.8N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 34.3N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:09:07 UTC