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HURRICANE SANDRA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
1100 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015

...SANDRA FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 109.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa
should monitor the progress of Sandra.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sandra was locate
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 109.4 West.  Sandra is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue during the next several hours with a turn
toward the north-northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Sandra could pass near the southern end of the Baja
California peninsula Friday night or early Saturday, and approach
the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Sandra is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Rapid weakening is expected
during the next 48 hours, and Sandra is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm Friday night and become a remnant low on Saturday
before reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Sandra is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over the
Mexican states of Baja California Sur...Sinaloa...Sonora...
Chihuahua...and far western Durango through Saturday night. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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