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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
200 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 108.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to San Blas
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sandra was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 108.4 West. Sandra is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Sandra is expected to pass west of
Las Islas Marias tonight and move onshore in the warning area on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Sandra is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this evening and
be near tropical storm strength when it moves near the coast of
Mexico in the warning area on Saturday. After the center moves
inland, Sandra should quickly dissipate.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sandra is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, northwest Jalisco, Aguascal, southern Zacateca and southern
Durango. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flood and
mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Las Islas
Marias in the next few hours and reach the coast of mainland Mexico
within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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