ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015 200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 It appears that the strong shear is finally affecting the structure of the hurricane. The cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated and the eye is no longer observed. In fact, most of the deep convection is now on the northeastern portion of the cyclone. Both objective and subjective numbers are decreasing, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt. The shear is forecast to increase even more, and most of the global models continue to separate the surface center from the mid-level circulation. As suggested by guidance, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and brings Sandra near the coast of mainland Mexico below tropical storm strength. Satellite fixes indicate that Sandra has been moving toward the north-northeast of 020 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within the broad southwesterly flow ahead of a large mid-latitude trough, and no significant change in the steering pattern is anticipated. On this basis, the NHC forecast keeps this general motion until the center of the cyclone reaches the coast of Mexico in about 36 hours. The NHC forecast is a little bit east of the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. The ECMWF model has shifted a little bit eastward in the last run, but still is on the western edge of dynamical guidance envelope. Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected weakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of the center, it is becoming less likely that a tropical storm warning will be required for southern the Baja California peninsula later this morning. Regardless of the intensity of Sandra, heavy rains over portions of Mexico, the remnant mid-/upper-level moisture associated with the cyclone will contribute to a significant precipitation event expected to occur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend. For more information on this event, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.9N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 22.3N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 24.2N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 26.5N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:10:00 UTC