ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015 800 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 Despite the presence of at least 25 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, the satellite appearance of Sandra unexpectedly improved near 0000 UTC when the eye became better defined. Whatever re-intensification this represents has ended, however, as the eye has again begun to lose definition. The initial intensity will be held at 105 kt for this advisory, and the hurricane could have been a little stronger than that three hours ago based on satellite intensity estimates. After nudging to the left earlier, Sandra has turned a little to the right with an initial motion of 010/11. The cyclone is moving into an area of low-level southerly flow west of a ridge over southern Mexico and an area of strong mid- to upper-level southwesterly flow between the ridge and a large trough over the western United States. The track guidance indicates that a general north-northeastward motion should continue until the center reaches mainland Mexico in about 48 hours, although there is some spread between the poorly initialized ECMWF on the left side of the guidance envelope and the better initialized GFS on the right side. The new forecast track is nudged to the east based mainly on the current position and motion, and it lies near the center of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that some eastward component of motion is likely to continue as long as Sandra retains a deep vertical structure, which would help keep the cyclone east of the Baja California peninsula. Steadily increasing shear should cause Sandra to rapidly weaken until the center reaches mainland Mexico. The new intensity forecast, which is in good agreement with all of the intensity guidance is unchanged from the previous forecast. It continues to call for Sandra to weaken to a tropical storm before the closest approach to Baja California and to a remnant low before reaching mainland Mexico. Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected weakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of the center, a tropical storm warning will not be issued for southern Baja California at this time. However, a warning could still be required later tonight or on Friday. In addition to heavy rains over portions of Mexico, the remnant mid-/upper-level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event expected to occur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend. For more information on this event, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.0N 109.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.3N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.2N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.0N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 107.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:10:00 UTC