ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
200 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015

Sandra has intensified during the past few hours. The eye has
become quite distinct and is surrounded by an area of very deep
convection. CIMSS ADTs have been oscillating around 6.5, which
is the same as the T-number provided by TAFB. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been increased to 125 kt, making Sandra a
category 4 hurricane.

Most likely, Sandra has already reached its peak intensity, and
although the ocean is still warm, the hurricane is expected to
soon encounter very strong southwesterly shear, which should result
in rapid weakening. This is reflected in both the GFS and the ECMWF
global models which separate the mid-level circulation for the
surface center in about 36 to 48 hours due to shear. Sandra is
expected to be a weakening storm by the time its center passes south
of the southern portion the Baja California peninsula in about 48
hours. The cyclone is forecast to be a dissipating remnant low over
mainland Mexico in about 3 days.

As anticipated, Sandra has turned northward, and the initial motion
is now 350/10. The ridge that was controlling the motion of Sandra
has been eroded by an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This flow
pattern should force the hurricane to recurve soon, and then turn
even more to the north-northeast toward mainland Mexico. The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one and is very close to
the multi-model consensus. The ECMWF, however, insists on a track
closer to Baja California and this is not out of the question.  A
small deviation to the north of the track will require watches or
warnings for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later this morning, and interests in this area should continue to
monitor the progress of Sandra.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 14.6N 110.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 16.1N 110.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.0N 110.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 19.5N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 21.6N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 27.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN