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TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015

Rick has not changed much since yesterday.  Visible satellite images
from earlier this evening and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center of the storm is located to the northwest of a
pulsing area of deep convection.  The initial intensity estimate is
again held at 35 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin.

Dry and stable air has been entraining into the northwestern side of
the circulation for some time.  The continued effects of dry
air, increasing shear, and cooler waters should result in Rick
weakening during the next day or so.  The cyclone is expected to
become a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday when it moves
over sea surface temperatures lower than 26 degrees C and is
embedded in hostile atmospheric conditions.  The remnant low is
expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Rick continues to move westward at about 10 kt, and the system is
a little left of the previous track prediction.  The guidance
continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down
during the next couple of days as the mid-level ridge to the north
of the storm breaks down.  Little motion is expected beyond a
couple of days when the shallow cyclone becomes embedded in weak
steering currents.  The NHC official track forecast is shifted to
the west of the previous one, and is in best agreement with a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 17.8N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 20.7N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 21.3N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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