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Tropical Storm RICK (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

The cloud pattern of the cyclone is better organized than this time
yesterday.  First-light visible imagery indicates that the low-level
center is underneath a circular mass of deep convection, and there
has been an increase in banding features and their associated
curvature.  The increase in organization could be a sign of some
decrease of the southeasterly shear that has been affecting the
cyclone.  A Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.5 from TAFB and an
UW-CIMSS ADT value of 2.9 is used to raise the initial intensity
estimate to 35 kt.

Some further decrease in southeasterly shear is likely through
early Friday.  With large-scale environmental conditions otherwise
largely favorable, intensification is shown through about 24 to 36
hours.  The window of opportunity for strengthening should be short-
lived though, since west-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase
by 48 hours when Rick moves north of the upper-level ridge axis.
The shear should become prohibitively high by 72 hours ahead of a
shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics being ejected
eastward toward the cyclone.  The result should be rapid weakening,
and remnant low status is likely by 96 hours, if not sooner.
Dissipation is now shown by 120 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous one, and shows and earlier
peak, with remnant low status indicated sooner.

The center has been difficult to locate but seems to be slightly
farther east than previous estimates based on a couple of microwave
passes and visible imagery. The best estimate of the initial motion
is north or 360/06. Global models show mid-level ridging building to
the north of the cyclone today, and the depression should be respond
by moving more quickly toward the northwest and then west-northwest
over the next day or two.  Rick should reach the western periphery
of this ridge in 3 to 4 days and begin to move more poleward, but
will likely dissipate before responding to the trough in the
subtropics moving toward it.  The new track forecast is right of the
previous one, primarily due to the more eastward initial position
estimate.

Only 3 tropical storms have formed later than this calendar date in
the eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in the early
1970s.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 14.7N 105.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:58 UTC