ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
175 KTS...200 MPH...325 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34  2  15(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
SAN BLAS       34 64  32(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
SAN BLAS       50  2  37(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SAN BLAS       64  X  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
P VALLARTA     34 98   1(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
P VALLARTA     50 39  45(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
P VALLARTA     64 12  41(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50 85   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64 54   3(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
MANZANILLO     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MANZANILLO     50 42   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
MANZANILLO     64  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 35  23(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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