Tropical Storm PATRICIA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015               
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  41(51)   X(51)   X(51)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)  37(62)   X(62)   X(62)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   X(27)   X(27)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  39(55)  20(75)   X(75)   X(75)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  19(38)   X(38)   X(38)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   3( 3)  15(18)  38(56)  17(73)   X(73)   X(73)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  17(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2  10(12)  16(28)  10(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  3  10(13)   8(21)   5(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
ACAPULCO       34  5   6(11)   3(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
P MALDONADO    34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  30(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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