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Hurricane PATRICIA (Text)


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HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
700 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...PATRICIA INTENSIFYING QUICKLY...
...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETED
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 103.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 103.0 West. Patricia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn
toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight, followed by
a turn toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of the hurricane will be crossing the coast of Mexico in the
hurricane warning area by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Patricia
is likely to become a major hurricane later today or tonight.
Thereafter, additional strengthening is forecast until landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, and are
possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or early
Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:56 UTC