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Hurricane PATRICIA


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 105.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Mexico north of San Blas to El Roblito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to El Roblito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia is
now moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northeast and a faster forward motion are expected later
today, with this motion continuing tonight and Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Patricia should cross the coast in
the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or early this
evening.  After landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move
quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane through landfall.  After landfall, Patricia is
forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should reach the hurricane warning area
during the next several hours, with the worst conditions likely this
afternoon and this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are now
spreading across portions of the warning area. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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