ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 102.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 102.3 West.  Patricia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight
followed by a turn toward the north on Friday.  On the forecast
track, the center of the hurricane will be crossing the coast of
Mexico in the Hurricane Warning area by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued strengthening is forecast, and
Patricia is likely to become a major hurricane later today or
tonight.   Thereafter, additional strengthening is forecast until
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, and are
possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or early
Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN