ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...NOAA PLANE FINDS PATRICIA STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 99.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 99.5 West. Patricia is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected
tonight.  A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday,
followed by a turn toward the north on Friday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Patricia should be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico on Friday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Patricia is forecast to become a hurricane on
Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning areas by late Thursday or early Friday, and possible
within the tropical storm watch area by late Thursday or early
Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN