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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...PATRICIA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 97.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions
of the watch area later today or tonight.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 97.5 West. Patricia is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
likely to continue today.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, with a turn toward the northwest expected on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should
approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Thursday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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