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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTH
OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...145NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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